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"In much of the world, life expectancy is increasing; in addition, infant and child mortality in most developing countries is dropping. Against this positive backdrop, however, there appears to be a widespread increase in new and resurgent vector-borne and infectious diseases, such as dengue, malaria, hantavirus, and cholera. In addition, the percentage of the developing world’s population living in cities is expected to increase from 25% (in 1960) to more than 50% by 2020, with percentages in some regions far exceeding these averages. These changes will bring benefits only if accompanied by increased access to services such as sanitation and potable water supplies; they also can lead to serious urban environmental problems, including air pollution (e.g., particulates, surface ozone, and lead), poor sanitation, and associated problems in water quality and potability, if access to services is not improved.
Climate change could affect human health through increases in heat-stress mortality, tropical vector-borne diseases, urban air pollution problems, and decreases in cold-related illnesses. Compared with the total burden of ill health, these problems are not likely to be large. In the aggregate, however, the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human health do constitute a hazard to human population health, especially in developing countries in the tropics and subtropics; these impacts have considerable potential to cause significant loss of life, affect communities, and increase health-care costs and lost work days.
Model projections (which entail necessary simplifying assumptions) indicate that the geographical zone of potential malaria transmission would expand in response to global mean temperature increases at the upper part of the IPCC-projected range (3–5°C by 2100), increasing the affected proportion of the world’s population from approximately 45% to approximately 60% by the latter half of the next century.
Areas where malaria is currently endemic could experience intensified transmission (on the order of 50–80 million additional annual cases, relative to an estimated global background total of 500 million cases). Some increases in non-vector-borne infectious diseases—such as salmonellosis, cholera, and giardiasis—also could occur as a result of elevated temperatures and increased flooding. However, quantifying the projected health impacts is difficult because the extent of climate-induced health disorders depends on other factors—such as migration, provision of clean urban environments, improved nutrition, increased availability of potable water, improvements in sanitation, the extent of disease vector-control measures, changes in resistance of vector organisms to insecticides, and more widespread availability of health care. Human health is vulnerable to changes in climate—particularly in urban areas, where access to space conditioning may be limited, as well as in areas where exposure to vector-borne and communicable diseases may increase and health-care delivery and basic services, such as sanitation, are poor."