Uncertainty and precaution in aquaculture
Uncertainty about data, parameters, and
processes involved in fisheries is considerable and
aggravated by natural variability and climate
change and underscored by the need to consider
fisheries in their ecosystem. The conventional
fishery management toolbox has always contained a
number of "precautionary" elements allowing action
to be taken, in case of risk to the resources,
before enough scientific data was available.
Unfortunately, during the last fifty years, these
elements have been either scarcely used or poorly
enforced.
Principle 15 of the UNCED Rio Declaration
states that "In order to protect the
environment, the precautionary approach shall be
widely applied by States according to their
capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or
irreversible damage, lack of full scientific
certainty shall not be used as a reason for
postponing cost-effective measures to prevent
environmental degradation". To avoid or to
minimize adverse impacts on natural resources and
their environment resulting from their utilization
and development with insufficient information or
under scientific uncertainty, the precautionary
approach has been recommended, following UNCED, in
a number of internationally negotiated instruments
such as the Convention on Biological
Diversity and the FAO Code of Conduct for
Responsible Fisheries.
The Preamble to the Convention on Biological
Diversity, for instance, states that "where
there is a threat of significant reduction or loss
of biological diversity, lack of full scientific
certainty should not be used as a reason for
postponing measures to avoid or minimise such
threat".
The approach has become very popular with the
environment conservation stakeholders and is
putting its roots in the fisheries sector as well.
However, its practical meaning and operational
implications are often not well defined.
Contrary to what many seem to believe, the
approach, as defined in the related FAO
technical guidelines requires scientific rigor
in order to (1) have the level of objectivity
required to be accepted by those potentially
affected; and (2) to comply with UNCLOS'
requirements to base decisions on "the best
scientific evidence available".
When applied to aquaculture, the precautionary
approach as defined in FAO guidelines recognizes
that:
- all aquaculture activities have some
impact;
- these impacts should not be considered
negligible unless proved otherwise (e.g. in
aquaculture development, introduction of exotic
species, or water diversion projects);
- the complex and evolving ecosystem in which
aquaculture takes place will never be perfectly
understood;
- the development and implementation of
aquaculture development policy are therefore
always affected by uncertainty;
- the decision-making process and sector's
compliance with the decisions and regulations
add their own uncertainties;
- therefore, impacts of aquaculture activities
(particularly large scale, extensive
aquaculture) on the aquatic system may sometimes
be difficult to predict accurately; and
- consequences of errors on the resources, the
environment and; ultimately; the fisher's
community may be only slowly reversible.
As a result, and recognizing that the conduct of
aquaculture requires that decisions must often be
made with incomplete knowledge, the precautionary
approach requires inter alia that:
- a level of precaution commensurate to risk
be applied at all times to all aquaculture
activities;
- it be applied systematically, i.e. in
aquaculture research, management, development
and technology;
- potentially irreversible changes of the
environment or the resources be avoided to
maintain options for future generations;
- undesirable outcomes be explicitly sought
for, anticipated and measures be taken to reduce
their likelihood and potential cost;
- as a negative impact is discovered,
corrective measures be applied immediately and
be effective within an acceptable time frame
(e.g. 20-30 years or one human generation);
- in case of doubt, priority be given to
conserving the productive capacity of the
resource;
- stepwise development (and adaptive
management) be adopted when the development
context is highly uncertain;
- aquaculture development activities be
subjected to prior authorisation and periodic
review;
- the burden of proof be appropriately
(realistically) placed;
- standards of proof commensurate with the
potential risk to the resource be established;
and
- a comprehensive legal and institutional
management framework should be used to formalize
the approach.
In addition, a system of sustainability
indicators should be established to monitor
aquaculture policy impact and management
performance.
The Swedish government and FAO collaborated to
define the precautionary approach in a scientific
rigorous manner for major capture fisheries and
species introductions. The FAO technical guidelines
set out an operational definition of the
precautionary approach to fisheries as well as an
elaboration on the burden of proof. It also
contains detailed guidelines on how to conduct
fishery management and research and how to develop
and transfer fishery technology in a context of
uncertainty and responsible fisheries. Section 6 of
the Guidelines address the question of species
introductions. It states from the onset that
"because of the high probability that impacts of
species introductions (in an aquatic system) be of
irreversible and unpredictable nature, many species
introductions are not precautionary" (para.
102). It examines the questions of deliberate, as
well as unintended, introductions, research and
management implications and makes reference to the
1995 ICES Code of Practice on the Introduction
and Transfer of Marine Organisms.
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